Just days after Tropical Storm Andrea marked the start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, meteorologists are tracking another potential system, this time much closer to home.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced Thursday that tropical development could be forming in the Bay of Campeche, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. An area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is expected to drift west-northwestward into the weekend.
Forecasters say that if the system remains over water, a low-pressure system could form after Saturday. As of Thursday evening, the chance of tropical formation is low — sitting at 10% over the next 48 hours and 20% over the next seven days.
Despite the potential development, Florida residents likely won’t feel any impacts from this system. Due to its projected path, the disturbance isn’t expected to move toward the Sunshine State, even if it strengthens.
This new development comes after Tropical Storm Andrea briefly formed in the central Atlantic earlier this week, becoming the first named storm of the season. However, Andrea dissipated shortly afterward and posed no threat to land.
According to historical data from the NHC, the Atlantic typically sees its first named storm by June 20, its first hurricane by August 11, and its first major hurricane by September 1.
Forecasters continue to monitor the region closely as the 2025 hurricane season gets underway.
